Forecasting Trends of Safety Performance Indicators in Aviation
[ 1 ] Instytut Silników Spalinowych i Napędów, Wydział Inżynierii Lądowej i Transportu, Politechnika Poznańska | [ P ] employee
2023
scientific article
english
- forecasting trends of indicators
- safety management systems
- safety performance indicators
EN This article concerns trends in forecasting safety performance indicators (SPIs) in civil aviation. The main objective is to present a proposal for the method of forecasting trends in air traffic safety performance indicators in the future. For this purpose, a SPI forecasting method based on Holt’s exponential smoothing model was proposed. To confirm the correctness of the proposed method, a selected sample safety performance indicator for Airspace Infringement occurrences was forecasted. An analysis of the obtained results was carried out and areas of further research were presented. This article also discusses the issues of forecastingdevelopment trends of selected safety performance indicators and their variability over time for the Polish airspace.
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